The closeness of the 2015 Alberta election

Posted in civics on Thursday, May 07 2015

I was thinking, while I drove home today, about how close so many of the ridings seemed, and whether or not voter turn out was correlated to how contested a riding was. Are the uncontested ridings because nobody really showed up, say only the WRP supporters cared enough to vote in a given riding and so they won, but the total number of voters was super low. It seemed that the NDP had a lot of close races, was that just because they were winning a lot more seats, or was life actually harder for them?

These questions can be answered with data. And yes, I do love python so much that I more or less make excuses to fire up an ipython notebook and noodle around.

I want to know how close the ridings were, so I just count the number of votes difference between the winner and the runner up, I also take the time to store who the winner was and the total number of votes in the riding. Below are the first few rows of the election results table.

2 AFP LIB AP SC CP-A GPA NDP PC WRP IND total close win
ED Name
DUNVEGAN-CENTRAL PEACE-NOTLEY 0 0 0 0 0 0 3694 2756 3143 0 9593 551 NDP
LESSER SLAVE LAKE 0 0 0 0 0 0 3908 1950 3196 0 9054 712 NDP
CALGARY-ACADIA 0 764 0 0 0 0 5503 4604 4981 0 15852 522 NDP
CALGARY-BOW 0 683 466 0 0 447 5680 5417 3753 0 16446 263 NDP
CALGARY-BUFFALO 0 3274 0 0 0 263 4671 3740 1354 0 13302 931 NDP

The closest riding was Calgary-Glenmore which was tied NDP/PC as of the time I wrote this

AFP          0
LIB       1344
AP         718
SC           0
CP-A         0
GPA          0
NDP       7015
PC        7015
WRP       5058
IND          0
total    21150
close        0
win         PC
Name: CALGARY-GLENMORE, dtype: object

The furthest riding was Rachel Notley, she trounced everyone in her riding

AFP          0
LIB        659
AP           0
SC           0
CP-A         0
GPA          0
NDP      13597
PC        2242
WRP          0
IND          0
total    16498
close    11355
win        NDP
Name: EDMONTON-STRATHCONA, dtype: object

I have theory that there is a correlation between how many people showed up and how close the riding was. If nobody showed up I expect it was an easy victory, people who would have voted against the winner gave up in a cloud of pessimism and apathy.

png

My theory is probably wrong, there is no real correlation here. Two things pop out, though:

  1. The total number of votes cast appears normally distributed , which makes some sense
  2. The "closeness" of the races is not at all normal. In fact it looks like most races were pretty close.

I can plot a histogram of general closeness and find that about a third of ridings had less than 1000 votes between the winner and the next runner up. On average, the total number of votes cast in a riding was 17066, so a third of ridings had less than a 6% difference between the leader and next runner up.

I am not a politically learned person so I have no idea how that compares to the usual, but it seems like a pretty small difference to me.

png

My other theory was that the NDP had a harder fight, so ridings where the NDP won should have higher "closeness" than ones where the WRP won. So I expect a histogram for the NDP to peak at a lower value of "closeness" than the WRP.

To answer that I can divide up the data based on who won and plot a violin plot.

png

A swing and a miss again. It looks like all three major parties fought mostly tight races, with the NDP having a fatter tail than the PCs or WRP. In fact if you were to pick an easily won riding at random, odds are it was won by the NDP.

As usual the ipython notebook can be found on github