Vote switching in Alberta

Posted in civics on Saturday, May 16 2015

Abacus data did some polling and it came up with some nice data that validates some of my wild hand-waving speculation about the recent provincial election. Specifically that the PC base didn't so much evaporate as the not conservatives put their votes behind the NDP and Wildrose.

Vote switching from 2012 to 2015

The most interesting bit for me was the 55% of "didn't vote last time" who sided with the NDP. Not only were the NDP good at demolishing the Liberal party and retaining their own supporters at a level neither the PCs nor WRP could come close to matching, but they also drew in the new and/or apathetic.

It does leave me wondering if the last several years in Alberta of low voter turn-out skewed the political pundits perspective on just how right wing Alberta was. It wasn't so much that Alberta was hugely right wing as much as the right wing people voted and convinced the scattered pockets of left wing people that there was no point in voting, because this was such a right wing province. I mean that's a nice story isn't it?

tags: elections,