probability

a fun little exercise

I had a conversation today about the curse of dimensionality and ended up pulling out ESL as a resource for some more talk on this. In there I found a great little derivation that both seems ridiculously complicated on its face (it sounds complicated), has deep practical implications, and can be done entirely with facts you learn in an intro probability and statisitcs course.

tags: probability, the curse of dimensionality,

Making Sense of Probabilistic Forecasts -- 2016 Election Edition

The U.S. Presidential election was on Tuesday and the result was not what many people were expecting, to put it mildly. Let's take a voyage of discovery to find out how we ended up here, and what to make of the apparent failure of election forecasters to predict...this...

tags: elections, statistical models, probability,

Risks and Consequences

I want to take a minute and talk about risk analysis and some of the underlying assumptions left unexamined.

tags: risk analysis, probability, loss functions,


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